SE Trade on Mar 7, 2023 11:04 from Maarten: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Preparation
Premarket
Catalyst: Earnings beat, surprise profit: (0.78) expected, 0.72 reported. Last profit was in 2017
Setup: positive reaction 7.5% 1.67ATR
Technicals: LT uptrend, recently bounced of the 50SMA.
Broken daily: >50% down from 52w high. Just about.
Volume: 34%
Stock made insane moves during 2019 & 2020. Had an insane drawdown as well. But the news is very surprising, ST daily trend is up, halfway up the channel. It’s looking very good:
9/10. Volume is amazing

Intraday
16:09
3.1ATR opening drive. Decent volume during retracement. 2672%. Retracement into VWAP. Very strong open. Now let’s see if a trend can develop.

ABCD pattern.
Checks in my favor:
-ABCD pattern on 5m and 10m chart.
-HTF & premarket support level.

Checks against me:
-Some increased selling in retracement. Significant red volume.
- Market is red/ trending(nonvolatile) lower.

Trade management:
Move2move
Conditions favoring trailing stops

-How successful were you in identifying the market environment and playbook variables during the trading session?

Did very well premarket. Was excited about this opportunity premarket. That was also because of the catalyst: Expected a loss, posted a surprise win. Last win was reported in 2017. Technicals were also strong.
Did well in the morning recognizing the strength, the ABCE pattern and the beginning of the trend. Had the right level highlighted. Price bounced exactly off this level. I had high conviction in this setup once it held 74.60.
What was the optimal trade management strategy, in order to minimize risk when wrong or maximize gain when right? How does that compare to your trade management strategy? What signals (if any) did the market provide for moving the stop to breakeven, or beyond?

Optimal trade was a trade2hold because:
-Very strong catalyst.
-Strong daily up trend.
-Room to trend on the daily, no clear resistance levels.
- Strong thesis: 9/10, market reaction aligns.
- Bounce of HTF key level.
-Last earnings was a trade2hold as well, almost a trend day
-Odds for new HOD and some continuation were >50%.

Trading management in a drawdown, wrong choices
I chose for a move2move strategy. I thought it was psychologically the right thing to do since I am in a big drawdown and wanted to book some profit.
I think to take a trade2hold and turn it into a move2move is never the right decision. What I could do is take some profit off earlier and adjust my stop break even. I could set a more aggressive trailing stop: significant close below the 9EMA for instance.

Optimal strategy
Trade2hold
-25% entry or lower given HTF support level.
- 20EMA trailing stop AND/OR clear 5m higher lows.
-Profit core target: Trend – Weakening
-Exit partials: Swing highs above HOD.
- Add back partials at swing lows near 20EMA.

What was the ideal entry point? How does that compare to your entry? What signals (if any) did the market provide, which could have led to an improved entry?

I was focusing initially on a 5m new high entry. Then I noticed support was holding and it was bouncing cleanly of the 20EMA. But because I had chosen for a move2move trade I was late to switch entry strategy. Price already moved past my entry. So I entered at 41% which was still far below a 5m new high at that moment.

Was the initial stop location appropriate? Was it in accordance with your trading plan? Where, with the benefit of hindsight, should the stop have been placed? What signals (if any) did the market provide to identify that location?

Nonvolatile trend, less decisision, tighter stop.
The price action that occurred was a nonvolatile trend along the 9EMA. It was clearly trending up. But this means that price swings are shorter and more frequent.
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I am better off doing nothing and setting a more aggressive trailing stop then taking profit at swing highs and adding back at swing lows. The swing highs and lows don’t get me good prices and I will ruin my average and pay more commissions.
A break of a swing low would mean a clear change of trend in this environment. It would mean that trend is weakening.

What was the optimal exit location or locations, in order to minimize risk when wrong or maximize gain when right? How does this compare to your exit location? What signals (if any) did the market provide to identify this ideal exit location?

I think this is a trade2hold. I shouldn’t take off more then 10% before price reaches HOD. This could be a move2move/momentum exit. Just to take off some risk.

Optimal trade2hold exit strategy – nonvolatile price action
-Take off 10% max before HOD/LOD is reached at swing high/low, ideally I should take off nothing.
-Take off minor partials of 5-15% at obvious swing highs/lows. Leave at least 60% on.
Sell core when there is a reason2sell:
-Trailing stop that is a trend is a clear trend break.
Change of trend:
-Transition into range. More inside candles without/with a failed higher high/lower low.
-Transition into reversal: Strong momentum followed by reversal bar on elevated volume.